There is a number that most Indian silver investors have never looked at. It sits in a dry CME Group warehouse report, updated daily, buried in tables that look nothing like an investment dashboard.
That number is COMEX registered silver inventory — the amount of physical silver sitting in approved New York vaults, tagged with a warrant and immediately available for delivery against futures contracts.
As of March 2026, it stands at approximately 89 million ounces. In September 2025, it was 200 million ounces.
That is a decline of 111 million ounces in roughly five and a half months — averaging 20 million ounces drained from registered vaults every single month. At this pace, basic arithmetic suggests registered stocks would be exhausted within months if the withdrawal rate continues and inflows do not accelerate.
This is the kind of data that institutional silver traders watch obsessively. Makro tracks it daily so Indian investors can see what is happening in real time — without having to parse raw exchange reports.
What Are COMEX Vaults and Why Do They Matter?
COMEX — the Commodity Exchange in New York, now part of CME Group — maintains a network of approved warehouses where physical silver (and gold) is stored to support its futures market.
When someone buys a COMEX silver futures contract and decides to take physical delivery rather than cash-settle, they receive a warehouse warrant — a document representing ownership of a specific quantity of silver stored in a specific approved vault. That is what registered inventory means: silver with a warrant attached, ready to be claimed.
Eligible inventory is silver that also sits in COMEX-approved vaults and meets exchange standards, but does not yet have a warrant. The owner has not made it available for delivery. It can be converted to registered at any time, but until it is, it does not back futures contracts directly.
The distinction matters enormously:
- Total inventory (registered + eligible) can look stable while the deliverable pool shrinks
- Registered inventory is what actually backs open contracts and physical demand
- When registered stocks fall sharply while eligible stays flat or declines, it means silver is leaving the COMEX system entirely — not just moving between categories
The September 2025 to March 2026 depletion is precisely this pattern. Registered holdings have collapsed. Eligible has not meaningfully compensated. The metal is not sitting in eligible waiting to be warranted — it is being physically withdrawn from the vaults.
The Numbers: What Has Actually Happened
The scale of the silver vault drawdown is worth laying out clearly, because it is genuinely unusual by historical standards.
In September 2025, COMEX registered silver vaults held approximately 200 million ounces — a relatively well-supplied market after years of post-COVID inventory rebuilding.
By late February 2026, registered holdings had declined to approximately 89 million ounces — a drop of 111 million ounces in about 24 weeks.
At the most recent measured depletion pace of roughly 3–4 million ounces per day in peak withdrawal sessions, the coverage ratio — the amount of registered physical silver relative to outstanding paper (open interest) contracts — has deteriorated sharply. As of recent readings, the paper-to-registered ratio for silver stands around 7:1, meaning there are roughly 7 ounces of paper claims for every 1 ounce of registered physical silver in COMEX vaults.
For context, each standard COMEX silver futures contract represents 5,000 troy ounces. If even a fraction of open interest holders decide to stand for physical delivery rather than rolling their contracts, the pressure on remaining registered inventory intensifies rapidly.
This is not a theoretical concern. The April 2026 silver futures first notice day — the date by which contract holders must declare their intention to take delivery — is approaching with approximately 1,951 contracts still open, representing roughly 9.8 million ounces of potential delivery demand. Against registered stocks of 89 million ounces, this is manageable in isolation, but it arrives against the backdrop of months of sustained outflows.
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View Live CFTC Data →Why Is Silver Leaving the Vaults?
This is the question that separates a useful data point from a meaningless number. Vault outflows do not automatically signal a crisis — they need context.
Industrial demand is structurally elevated
Silver is not primarily a monetary metal anymore. Approximately 60% of global silver demand is now industrial — electronics, solar panels, electric vehicles, medical devices, and semiconductors. Solar panel manufacturing alone consumed around 200 million ounces of silver in 2024, and that number is rising as renewable energy capacity expands globally.
Unlike gold, where most above-ground stock is preserved in jewellery and reserves, industrial silver is consumed — it is used up and not easily recovered. This structural consumption means the silver market has been running a supply deficit every year since 2021 — five consecutive years of demand exceeding mine production plus recycling. The total cumulative deficit over these five years now represents close to one full year of global annual production.
Mining supply cannot respond quickly
Around 75–80% of silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead mining — not from primary silver mines. This means silver production is largely determined by base metals economics, not silver prices. Even with silver at all-time highs above $65 per ounce in December 2025, miners cannot simply open new silver mines overnight. The supply response to higher prices is slow, constrained, and largely indirect.
Physical silver is moving east
Market participants and analysts tracking COMEX delivery data have noted a pattern of silver being physically removed from New York vaults — not transferred to eligible, but withdrawn entirely. Much of this metal appears to be moving toward Asian markets where physical demand for industrial and investment purposes is strongest. Shanghai's silver market has shown persistent premiums, and Chinese industrial buyers have been securing physical inventory directly.
The silver market entered backwardation
A market in backwardation means the spot price is higher than futures prices. This is the opposite of the normal state of affairs (called contango), where futures trade at a premium to spot to reflect storage and financing costs. Backwardation in silver signals that physical silver in hand today is worth more than silver promised for delivery later. It is one of the clearest market-structure signals of immediate physical supply tightness.
Makro's COMEX data dashboard tracks backwardation signals alongside vault inventory levels — because the combination of both, rather than either alone, is what defines a genuine supply squeeze setup.
What This Means for Silver Prices in India
Indian silver investors are directly connected to these global dynamics through MCX silver futures and the growing range of silver ETFs listed on NSE.
The currency amplifier
Just as with gold, the rupee exchange rate amplifies international silver price moves for Indian investors. At the current USD/INR rate near ₹93.71/$, every 10% move in international silver prices translates to approximately a 10%+ move in MCX silver and in silver ETF NAVs — sometimes more, if the rupee weakens simultaneously.
Silver's dual nature: investment + industry
Indian investors sometimes treat silver purely as a cheaper alternative to gold for portfolio diversification. But silver's industrial demand story — solar panels, EVs, electronics — gives it a second powerful demand driver that gold does not have. As India accelerates its solar capacity buildout and EV adoption, domestic industrial silver demand is also rising, adding a local dimension to the global supply story.
Silver ETFs on NSE
There are now several silver ETFs listed on NSE, including Nippon India Silver ETF (SILVERBEES), ICICI Prudential Silver ETF (SILVERIETF), and others. These funds hold physical silver in approved vaults — Indian vaults, not COMEX vaults — but their NAVs are directly tied to MCX silver prices, which in turn track international prices.
When COMEX registered inventories drain and the market enters backwardation, the price signal eventually flows through to MCX and then to ETF NAVs. Understanding the upstream supply dynamics helps Indian investors anticipate price movements rather than react to them after the fact.
Makro tracks COMEX silver warehouse data daily — registered stocks, eligible stocks, net flows in and out, and the paper-to-physical ratio — and presents it in a dashboard that takes minutes to read rather than hours of raw data parsing.
What LBMA London Vault Data Adds to the Picture
COMEX is not the only vault system that matters for silver. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) oversees the world's largest over-the-counter precious metals market, centered in London. While the LBMA does not publish granular daily inventory data the way COMEX does, monthly reports and market participant testimony have indicated extended delivery timeframes and reduced available stock during periods of elevated physical demand. Makro's Global Markets dashboard tracks LBMA-related data alongside COMEX for a complete picture.
The gold market saw a vivid example of this dynamic in early 2025, when tariff arbitrage drove a massive movement of gold from London vaults to COMEX warehouses. COMEX gold inventory surged from 17.1 million ounces in November 2024 to a peak of 43.3 million ounces in March 2025 — a 153% increase in a single quarter — as traders physically airlifted gold from London to New York to profit from the price differential.
Silver is now experiencing pressure in the same vault infrastructure. When London delivery queues lengthen, when lease rates spike (they hit 200% annualized for silver during recent stress periods), and when COMEX registered stocks simultaneously decline, the market is telling a coherent story: physical silver is scarce relative to the paper claims against it.
How to Use This Data Without Overclaiming
Vault inventory data is a powerful signal. It is not a certainty.
Registered stocks can be replenished — eligible metal can be warranted, new imports can arrive, or the pace of physical delivery demand can slow as prices rise and some buyers choose cash settlement instead.
The honest framework is:
Declining registered stocks + backwardation + high delivery volumes = physical stress signal. It does not guarantee a price spike, but it narrows the probability distribution of outcomes toward supply tightness.
Rising registered stocks + contango + low delivery demand = well-supplied market. Prices can still rise for other reasons, but the physical squeeze narrative loses much of its support.
As of March 2026, the first combination is what COMEX silver data is showing. Whether this resolves through price discovery (higher prices reduce speculative demand and attract new supply) or through more acute delivery stress (shorts cannot source physical metal and must pay up) remains to be seen.
What matters for Indian investors is not predicting the exact outcome, but understanding the landscape — and watching the data as it evolves. For a deeper look at how precious metals behave during periods of market stress, see our analysis of gold's safe haven track record.
That is what Makro is built to do.
All inventory data referenced in this article reflects COMEX warehouse reports and market analysis available as of March 2026. Silver markets are highly volatile and data can change rapidly. This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making investment decisions.